Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) for Herat University

Abstract

This result represents a deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) of Herat University, a university in the western part of Afghanistan, in an active tectonic area due to the collision of the Indian and the Eurasian plate. Local strike-slip faults, such as the Hari Rud Fault System and the Kaj Rud Fault, which are located in the area around the site at a distance of about 50 km, control the area. Empirical relationships were used to find maximum credible magnitudes, giving an Mw 7.4 to Hari Rud system and Mw 6.0[1] to Kaj Rud Fault. Findings indicate that Hari Rud system is the most dominant seismic hazard in Herat University which generates the highest values of ground acceleration (PGA) around 0.41-0.44 g, with the fault as Kaj Rud contributing to the moderate yet significant shaking. The recent devastating 2023 Herat earthquake sequence highlights the importance of site-specific hazard analysis to aid earthquake-resistant design, disaster preparation, and resilient urban development. The findings are not essential only in the protection of the  Herat University but also in the enhancement of the seismic safety in the region at large.